Selected External Sector Variables And Unemployment In Nigeria
TOM-WEST Oduye Ngofa-a
Institute of International Trade and Development, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
KALU Ijeoma E
Institute of International Trade and Development, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
UDEORAH Sylvester A.F
Institute of International Trade and Development, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Keywords: ARDL, External reserves, foreign exchange, Trade openness, Unemployment
Abstract
The study examined selected external sector variables and unemployment in Nigeria from 1980 to 2021.The objectives of the study were to: determine the impact of foreign exchange reserves and trade openness on unemployment rates in Nigeria. Annual data was collected from CBN statistical bulletins and World Development Index (WDI) and the techniques of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used. The ADF results showed that, only trade openness was integrated at order zero, I(0), while the remaining two variables were integrated at order one, I(1). The ARDL results showed that, there is a long-run relationship amongst the variables. Also, in the short-run, there is a negative relationship between foreign exchange reserves and unemployment in Nigeria. But, trade openness has positive relationship with unemployment rate in Nigeria. Nevertheless, trade openness impacted on unemployment rate. Given these findings, it was concluded that, foreign exchange reserves, and trade openness jointly impacted on unemployment rate in Nigeria. Based on the results, the following recommendations amongst others were suggested: Foreign exchange reserves should be well utilized with a view to increasing the rate of employment. Government should also encourage local production that will help to improve trade openness through increase in exports, which will in turn help to reduce unemployment rate.