Exploring The Effects Of Macroeconomics Stability On Human Development In Nigeria (1981 – 2023)
Godwin Lebari Tuaneh
Department Agric and Applied Economics, Rivers State University, Port- Harcourt, River State, Nigeria.
Favour O. Elendu
Department Agric and Applied Economics, Rivers State University, Port- Harcourt, River State, Nigeria.
Keywords: ARDL Model, Exchange Rate, Human Development, Inflation Rate, Macroeconomic Stability
Abstract
This study explored the short and long-term effects of the fluctuations in macroeconomic stability on human development trajectories across Nigeria. Exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate were the key macroeconomic indicators while per capita income and educational outcomes were measures of human development. Particularly, the study examined the effects of Exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rate on per capita income and on education outcome in Nigeria. Time series data spanning 1981 to 2023 were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin. Models were formulated in line with the objectives. Prediagnosis tests including the unit root and cointegration test were conducted to ascertain the stationarity status and long run cointegration of the series. The results of data analysis demonstrated a harsh macroeconomic environment characterized by high exchange rate, inflation rate, and interest rates, which did not foster economic growth and social outcomes. The results suggest that macroeconomic stability had no significant impact on per capita income levels and education outcome. However, only the lag value of per capita income had significant effects on per capita income (PV= 0.003 < 0.05). The study recommended comprehensive economic policies and macroeconomic effective management to create conducive macroeconomic environment for human development outcome. It was also recommended that economic managers should focus on strengthening macroeconomic frameworks that reduce instability and promote inclusive economic growth.