Inflation, Economic Stability And The Monetary Policy: The Nigeria Experience
Agada, Franklin Ayibatunimibofa
Department of Banking and finance, Federal Polytechnics Ekowe, Bayelsa State, Nigeria
Ekiye Ebipuamere
Department of Banking and finance, Federal Polytechnics Ekowe, Bayelsa State, Nigeria
Keywords: ARDL, CPI, Income, Unbanked, Nigeria
Abstract
We examined analyzed how monetary policy and economic stability affects inflation in Nigeria from 1981-2020. The secondary series came from the Central Bank of Nigeria's statistical bulletin. We specifically looked at how the monetary policy rate (MPR), treasury bill rate (TBR), exchange rate (EXR), GDP growth rate (GDPGR), and broad money supply growth rate (GDPGR) affect inflation (INF). We used descriptive statistics, unit root, Granger Causality, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, and ECM tests at the 5% level to do this. The unit root revealed that all variables were integrated at the level and first difference, necessitating the employment of the ARDL Bound test, which revealed evidence of long-run. GDPGR and MSGR granger cause INF in terms of Granger Causality, but INF does not granger cause GDPGR and MSGR. There was also no causation between MPR, TBR, and EXR and INF. MPR and EXR are negative but negligible to INF in the ARDL long-run test; GDPGR and MSGR are positive and significant to INF; and TBR is positive but insignificant to INF. Finally, GDPGR and MSGR are the primary predictors of inflation in Nigeria. As a result, we recommended that the CBN first narrow the asymmetric corridor around the MPR in order to check deposit money banks' excess reserves and expand their coverage in order to reduce the number of un-banked and under-banked people in the economy and thus reduce the informal sector's dominance.