The Nexus Between Stabilization Policies And Real Sector Output In Nigeria (1981-2020)
TUANEH Godwin Lebari
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Rivers State University
NMEGBU Ezihuo
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Rivers State University
Abstract
The responses of the general output level\of the real sectors to the changing stabilization policies have continually been an area of interest to researchers, policy and makers in the nation’s economy. This study examined the effects of stabilization policies on the real sector productivity in Nigeria. Specifically, the study examined; the effects of the stabilization policies variables (government expenditure and government tax revenue money supply, exchange rate, interest rate) on the key indicators of the real sectors particularly the agricultural, industrial and the service sectors Annual time series data on the study variables spanning through 1981-2020 were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model. The pre-diagnostic tests showed from the unit root test that all variable were I(1). The Johansen co-integration test showed that all variables had long-run co-integrating relationship. The ARDL ECM was consequently estimated and the study showed that stabilization policies in Nigeria had a significant long run influence on the agricultural sector, industrial sector and the service sector. The empirical results also showed that in the short run; government tax receipts (P = 0.023 < 0.05) and money supply (P = 0.049 < 0.05) had significant effect on agricultural sector gross domestic product, only government tax receipts (P = 0.023 < 0.05) had significant effect on industrial sector gross domestic product while government expenditure (P = 0.023 < 0.05) and exchange rate (P = 0.004 < 0.05) had significant effects on the service sector gross domestic product.