Estimation Of Gompertz Growth Model On Mortality Rate Of Children Under Five Years Of Age In Nigeria That Suffered From Hiv/Aids And Diarrhoea
Nwakuya, T. Maureen
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
BIU, O. Emmanuel
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.
Keywords: Gompertz Growth Model, Logarithm Transformation Method, Least Square Estimation Method, Mortality Rate, HIV/AIDS, Diarrhoea
Abstract
This work analyses the mortality rate of children under five years in Nigeria for a period of 15years. The data was obtained from United Nations International Children’s Education Fund (UNICEF) on HIV and diarrhoea mortality rate. A transformed Gompertz model was used for the analysis. The result show that as the mortality growth rate for both HIV and diarrhoea is increased the growth range of the mortality also increased. The best fitted model for predicting mortality for 0-12 months old children was seen to be and for HIV and diarrhoea respectively, while the best fitted model for predicting mortality rate for children between the ages 1-5 years was found to be and for HIV and diarrhoea respectively. The model predicted an increase in mortality due to diarrhoea and a steady mortality due to HIV.