A Mathematical Approach To Understanding The Effectiveness Of Control Measures In Mitigating Coronavirus Disease 19 (Covid-19) Spread.
C Okoye
Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria Nsukka
M B Okofu
Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria Nsukka
I D Benson
Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Godfery Okoye University Enugu
N K Nubila
Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Nigeria Nsukka
C L Ejikeme
Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria Nsukka
S N Aguegboh
Department of Mathematics, Veritas University Abuja
D F Agbebaku
Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria Nsukka
G C E Mbah
Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria Nsukka
Keywords: COVID−19, Control measure, Stability
Abstract
In less than five months, the world was stunned and suddenly it appeared every labour done over time faces collapse; health sector, sports, entertainment and global economy shaking and looks irrecoverable. The Coronavirus infectious disease 19 (commonly called COVID-19) is the reason for all these sudden imbalance and implode in the world today. We formulate a Mathematical Model that describes the possible dynamic of the disease spread. We first set up a basic Mathematical model describing the population dynamics of COVID−19 under the assumption of homogeneous mixing population. We perform the dynamical system analysis in the model, particularly obtaining the threshold quantity, R0, the basic reproduction number, and studying the stability of the system. We extend the model by introducing palliative measures (control measures) such as self-isolation, social distancing and quarantining to ascertain its efficacy in reducing the embarrassing spread of COVID−19 with attention also paid to effect overture. Our analytical results supports the ongoing campaign to stay at home and isolation of the infectious individuals to mitigate further spread.