Sensitivity Analysis Of Fowl Pox Infection
James Daniel
Nigeria Air Force Base, Bill Clinton Drive, Abuja
Ndidiamaka Edith Didigwu
Department of Industrial Mathematics/Applied Statistics, Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Enugu State, Nigeria.
Terhemen Simon Atindiga
Department of Basic Sciences, Akperan Orshi College of Agriculture, Yandev, Gboko, Benue State, Nigeria.
Keywords: Susceptibility, Latent, Sensitivity analysis, Infection and Transmission
Abstract
In this study, a Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed Mathematical model of fowl pox infection in poultry was formulated in order to capture possible effects of the disease. The Next-Generation matrix was used to obtain the reproduction number of the infection. We carried out sensitivity analysis on the model parameters in respect to the calculated reproduction number. The analysis showed that, the transmission rate of the infection is the most sensitive parameter that increases the rate of transmission of the disease followed by the proportion of susceptible birds infected latently unnoticed, . The third most sensitive parameter was found to be the rate at which the exposed birds become infectious while the least sensitive parameter being , rate at which the treated infected birds join the susceptible class. This analysis is implemented graphically through maple 17.