An Analysis Of The Spread Of The Covid-19 Epidemic In India’S Lockdown
Mihir Dash
Alliance University Bangalore, India
Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic, lockdown, propagation rate, limiting level of cumulative cases, migrant crisis
Abstract
India’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic was an unprecedented total lockdown beginning from March 25th, 2020. The present study extends the scope of an earlier study (Dash, 2020b) to analyse the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic across the phases of the lockdown. The results of the study indicate that the lockdowns have been successful in reducing the propagation rate of Covid-19, but concurrently increasing the projected limiting level of cumulative cases to as high as 26,51,699.30, probably due to the migrant crisis. The results of the study also suggest that the propagation of Covid-19 may be exponential in nature, particularly based on the data from May. Thus the central and state governments have to urgently address the twin challenge of constraining the propagation of Covid-19 and mitigating the plight of the daily labourers and wage workers.