Analysing The Coronavirus Epidemic In India: Exponential Vs Logistic Growth
Mihir Dash
Alliance University, Bangalore, India
Keywords: exponential, logistic, peak propagation rate, limiting level of cumulative cases
Abstract
This study analyses the propagation of the coronavirus epidemic in India. The variables considered were the daily number of new cases of infection by the Covid-19 virus, the cumulative number of cases of infection, the daily number of deaths due to the infection, and the cumulative number of deaths. The study period considered was 01/03/2020 to 11/04/2020. The propagation of the coronavirus was analysed to determine whether it is exponential or logistic in nature. Also, the impact of measures taken by the government such as the lockdown on the propagation rate was analysed. The key results of the study were that the propagation of the coronavirus was logistic in nature and that there was an increase in the peak propagation rate and the limiting level of cumulative cases after 1st April, 2020. The latter result suggests that the restrictions imposed by the government in mid-March 2020 were ineffective, and strict lockdown should have been imposed in early March 2020.